Students who do poorly on exams are often surprised by their exam performance as they thought they were well prepared.
students who do poorly on first exam usually do poorly on all exams
This group of students (low-middle of class) have not accurately predicted their level of understanding.
Their study skills are not providng accruate feedback information to allow them to modify their learning ( error monitoring and correction).
On the "How did you do on the test" survey, I have found students who think they did poorly, usually did well, but fixate on the two questions they really didn't know. Students who don't know the topic don't realize what they don't know and anticipate a higher score.
I like Spencer's idea to have the students create Bloom's questions -- like you added, on a study guide.
You can ask them return the exam with an "expected grade"